Underutilized or unprotected? New methods for analyzing diverging perspectives on the large-scale conversion of tropical grassland eco-systems

The project aims at developing a new methodology for an integrated economic, environmental,and social assessment of land use options for African savanna regions. Itis motivated by the fact that future land use options for the grasslandregionsworldwide, and 4particularly for the African Guinea savannazone,are subject to unresolved scientific controversies: Economic research has identified this regionas underutilized and having a large potential for increasing global biomass supply, while environmental research indicatesthat such a large-scale land use change may have far-reaching negative environmental consequenceswith regard to soil fertility, plant and animal biodiversity, hydrology,and carbon sequestration.These controversies remain unresolved because there are substantial knowledge gaps regarding the fundamental aspects of the biophysical dynamics in tropical grassland ecosystems, which are characterized by a complex interaction of climate, grassland vegetationand grazing animals. At the same time, there are major knowledge gaps regarding the governance of land use in the African Savanna region, which is subject to a complex interaction of customary and modern land tenure systems. The expansion of crop farming by smallholders hasresulted in crop-livestock conflictsand outbursts of violence. Furthermore, one can observe an increasing number oflarge-scale land acquisitionsin savanna regions, often associated withnegative social and environmental consequences.An important toolfor analyzing land use changein savanna ecosystemsare coupled biophysical and socioeconomic models.TheUniversity of Hohenheim has special expertisein this area.The proposed projectwill build uponcurrent researchactivitiessuch asthe coupling ofthe landuse change impact assessmentmodel LUCIAwith theagent-based socioeconomic model MPMAS, both of which have been developed in Hohenheim. To analyze potential impacts of land use change in savanna ecosystems, a livestock modelwill be developed and linked with theLUCIA model, which will capturethe biophysical dimensions of plant-animal interactionsand which is suitable to assess different grassland use options. The MPMAS model will be expanded to capture the specific features of land use decisions in savanna regions, which depend on the prevailing governance conditions and involve collective decision-making as well as theinteraction of competing land users, including large-scale investors.The coupling of the two expanded models will make it possible to analyze feedback loopsbetween changes in biophysicalandsocioeconomic parameters and to simulate different scenariosof change in savanna ecosystems, such as degradation, intensification,and conversion.The modeling system will also be used to identify governance instruments and processes that will promote more sustainable land use options