Simulating Stakeholder-Based Land-Use Change Scenarios and their Implication on Above-Ground Carbon and Environmental Management in Northern Thailand

Publikations-Art

Zeitschriftenbeitrag (peer-reviewed)

Autoren

M. Lippe, T. Hilger, S. Sudchalee, N. Wechpibal, A. Jintrawet and G. Cadisch

Erscheinungsjahr

2017

Veröffentlicht in

Land

Band/Volume

6 (4)/85/

DOI

10.3390/land6040084 (registering DOI)

Seite (von - bis)

1-18

Schlagworte

Landnutzung, Landwirtschaft und Umwelt, Modellierung, Thailand

The objective of this study was to examine whether the coupling of a land-use change (LUC)
model with a carbon-stock accounting approach and participatory procedures can be beneficial in a
data-limited environment to derive implications for environmental management. Stakeholder-based
LUC scenarios referring to different storylines of agricultural intensification and reforestation were
simulated to explore their impact on above-ground carbon (AGC) for a period of twenty years
(2009–2029). The watershed of Mae Sa Mai, Northern Thailand was used as a case study for this
purpose. Coupled model simulations revealed that AGC stocks could be increased by up to 1.7 Gg
C through expansion of forests or orchard areas. A loss of up to 0.4 Gg C would occur if vegetable
production continue to expand at the expense of orchard and fallow areas. The coupled model
approach was useful due to its moderate data demands, enabling the comparison of land-use
types differing in AGC build-up rates and rotation times. The scenario analysis depicted clear
differences in the occurrence of LUC hotspots, highlighting the importance of assessing the impact
of potential future LUC pathways at the landscape level. The use of LUC scenarios based on local
stakeholder scenarios offer a higher credibility for climate mitigation strategies but also underline the
need to co-design policy frameworks that acknowledge the heterogeneity of stakeholder needs and
environmental management frameworks.